The race to lead the world’s most powerful central bank has reached a fever pitch in prediction markets, with a decisive shift in sentiment favoring Wall Street veteran Rick Rieder. As of January 24, 2026, Rieder, the Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK), has emerged as the clear frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term is set to expire in May. While the race was previously a dead heat between various conservative economists, Rieder now commands a dominant 60% probability on major forecasting platforms, leaving former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh trailing in a distant second.
This market movement reflects more than just speculation; it is the culmination of high-stakes political signaling from the White House. The surge in Rieder’s odds coincides with a massive influx of capital into these markets, as traders scramble to position themselves ahead of a formal announcement. With over $300 million in combined volume between decentralized and regulated platforms, the "Next Fed Chair" market has become the focal point of global macro trading in early 2026.
The Market: What's Being Predicted
The prediction markets for the next Federal Reserve Chair have seen unprecedented liquidity this cycle. On Polymarket, the leading decentralized prediction platform, total volume for the Fed Chair contract has surpassed $250 million. Simultaneously, Kalshi, the U.S.-regulated exchange, has seen its volume climb to $55 million. The sheer scale of these markets suggests that institutional players and professional "political hunters" are using these contracts to hedge against potential shifts in monetary policy.
Current odds across both platforms are remarkably aligned:
- Rick Rieder: 60%
- Kevin Warsh: 23-24%
- Christopher Waller: 10%
- Kevin Hassett: 5-7%
The contract resolution is tied specifically to the official nomination by President Trump and subsequent confirmation or a formal announcement designated as the "intended nominee." Historically, these markets have traded with high volatility, but the recent consolidation around Rieder represents the first time a single candidate has held a supermajority probability since the speculation began in late 2025.
Why Traders Are Betting
The primary catalyst for the "Rieder Rally" was a strategic pivot by President Trump regarding his economic team. For much of late 2025, Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council (NEC), was the betting favorite. However, Trump’s public insistence that Hassett is "too good on television" to be moved from the NEC essentially eliminated him from the running.
Traders jumped on this "Hassett Pivot" to find the President's next preferred candidate. While Kevin Warsh briefly surged to 60% odds last week, the momentum shifted toward Rieder following a series of high-profile signals:
- Trump’s CNBC Endorsement: In a mid-January interview, the President praised Rieder’s "market-based judgment" and labeled him a "reformer" who understands the "true cost of debt."
- The Housing Factor: Rieder has been vocal about the need for the Fed to aggressively target mortgage rates to stimulate housing affordability—a key pillar of the current administration’s economic rhetoric.
- Hassett’s "Kingmaker" Move: Kevin Hassett himself recently described Rieder as "the best bond guy in the world," signaling that the President’s inner circle has reached a consensus.
Whale activity on Polymarket suggests that several large-scale bettors moved seven-figure positions out of Warsh and into Rieder following these endorsements, viewing Rieder as the "outsider" candidate that Trump typically favors over "Washington insiders" like Warsh or Waller.
Broader Context and Implications
The dominance of Rick Rieder in these markets marks a potential shift in the Federal Reserve’s philosophy. Unlike previous chairs, Rieder would come directly from the heart of the private sector, specifically from BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK), rather than from academia or a long-standing legal career. Prediction market participants are effectively betting that the Fed under Rieder would be more reactive to market conditions and perhaps more aggressive in cutting rates to accommodate fiscal expansion.
Furthermore, this market highlights the increasing utility of prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket as real-time barometers for political appointments. Traditional news outlets have been slower to catch the shift, often still reporting Warsh as the "likely" pick based on 2017-era precedents. However, the "wisdom of the crowd" in prediction markets has proven highly sensitive to the specific populist and market-driven rhetoric emerging from the Trump administration in 2026.
The legal and regulatory backdrop also looms large. As Kalshi and other platforms fight to maintain their status in the U.S. regulatory landscape, the high volume and accuracy of the Fed Chair market serve as a powerful case study for their role in price discovery for political risk.
What to Watch Next
The window for a formal nomination is narrowing. With Jerome Powell’s term ending in May, President Trump is expected to make an announcement by the end of January or early February to allow for a smooth Senate confirmation process. Traders should keep a close eye on any "trial balloon" tweets or comments regarding the ongoing DOJ investigations into the Fed’s internal operations, which Trump has used as a justification for an early transition.
A sudden drop in Rieder’s odds would likely only occur if a "dark horse" candidate—such as a surprise pick from a different major financial institution—emerges during one of the President's weekend meetings at Mar-a-Lago. Conversely, if the administration confirms that Rieder has met with the Senate Finance Committee, his odds could easily climb toward 80% or 90% before the official press release.
Bottom Line
As of January 24, 2026, the prediction markets have spoken: the "Warsh Era" that many expected has been eclipsed by the "Rieder Surge." With 60% odds and massive volume backing him, Rick Rieder is the clear market favorite to become the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.
This shift tells us that traders are prioritizing "outsider" status and market expertise over traditional central banking credentials. While Kevin Warsh remains a viable backup at 24%, the alignment of Trump’s public praise and Hassett’s endorsement has created a powerful narrative that Rieder is the intended nominee. For those watching the future of American monetary policy, the prediction markets aren't just reflecting reality—they are increasingly the most reliable signal we have.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Prediction market participation may be subject to legal restrictions in your jurisdiction.
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